2024 Stats
W-L
3-3
ERA
6.03
WHIP
1.83
K
28
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Nelson worked as a back-end starter for Arizona in 2023, but it was an underwhelming rookie campaign with a 5.31 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 96:46 K:BB across 144 innings. His 7.4 percent walk rate was solid and consistent with his time in the minors, but he had a 15.5 percent strikeout rate and a 1.5 HR/9. He still made the postseason roster and had a minimal role prior to the World Series, when he allowed just one run over 5.1 frames of valuable long relief in Game 4. Despite that strong finish, Nelson likely won't enter 2024 with any guarantee for a rotation spot, especially since Arizona made additions in free agency. However, the right-hander still has plenty of upside and was encouragingly less reliant on his fastball last season, and he could be a solid back-end piece in 2024 if he's able to better utilize his secondary offerings. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#542
ADP
Silences Dodgers over five frames
Nelson (3-3) earned the win Wednesday, shutting out the Dodgers over five innings while allowing five hits and three walks. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander didn't draw the start but relieved Brandon Hughes with just two outs in the first inning before pitching all the way into the sixth. Nelson struck out three of the first five batters he faced and induced 10 whiffs on the night, while also working his way out of multiple jams against a lethal Dodgers lineup. It was a great bounceback effort for Nelson after allowing a season-high eight runs in his previous outing. He's now won three of his last four decisions (spanning six outings).
The right-hander didn't draw the start but relieved Brandon Hughes with just two outs in the first inning before pitching all the way into the sixth. Nelson struck out three of the first five batters he faced and induced 10 whiffs on the night, while also working his way out of multiple jams against a lethal Dodgers lineup. It was a great bounceback effort for Nelson after allowing a season-high eight runs in his previous outing. He's now won three of his last four decisions (spanning six outings).
Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
80
Last 10 Games
80
Last 5 Games
76
How many pitches does Ryne Nelson generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Ryne Nelson generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2024
-33%
BAA vs LHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022vs Left | .280 | 62 | 40 | 103 | 14 | |||
| Since 2022vs Right | .293 | 78 | 22 | 118 | 16 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .284 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 4 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .421 | 17 | 5 | 32 | 0 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .294 | 42 | 33 | 77 | 9 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .276 | 54 | 13 | 82 | 15 | |||
| 2022vs Left | .156 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2022vs Right | .133 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-57%
ERA on Road
2024
-63%
ERA on Road
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022Home | 7.55 | 1.84 | 84.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | ||||
| Since 2022Away | 3.21 | 1.13 | 112.0 | 7.0 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2024Home | 8.66 | 2.15 | 17.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | ||||
| 2024Away | 3.24 | 1.50 | 16.2 | 8.1 | 1.6 | ||||
| 2023Home | 8.25 | 1.92 | 55.2 | 5.0 | 3.7 | ||||
| 2023Away | 3.46 | 1.11 | 88.1 | 6.6 | 2.3 | ||||
| 2022Home | 2.38 | 0.97 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | ||||
| 2022Away | 0.00 | 0.57 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Ryne Nelson compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
2.80K/9
7.3BB/9
2.6HR/9
1.0Fastball
95.1 mphERA
6.03WHIP
1.83BABIP
.416GB/FB
1.84Left On Base
67.9%Exit Velocity
82.7 mphBarrels/BBE
4.3%Spin Rate
2274 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
22.6%Swinging Strike
9.4%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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2023 Fantasy Outlook
Nelson's 2022 season was quite the roller coaster. He gave up 43 earned runs over a 53.1-inning stretch from mid-April to mid-June, righted the ship somewhat over the next couple months, excelled over three MLB starts and ended the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. His struggles in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League shouldn't be a prohibitive factor in his 2023 outlook, especially given that he had success at Double-A and in a small MLB sample. Nelson threw his plus fastball (touches 98 mph, excellent rising action) 70% of the time while mixing in a couple breaking balls and a changeup. He showed impressive flashes against quality big-league hitters and should break camp in Arizona's rotation if his shoulder issue is in the rearview mirror. There is some risk that his reliance on his fastball will be exploited as hitters see him a second time, but Nelson has legitimately good stuff and size (6-foot-3, 184 pounds) and a clear opportunity.
More Fantasy News
Not expected to start Wednesday
Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said that Nelson is unlikely to start Wednesday versus the Dodgers as previously scheduled, Jesse Friedman of GoPHNX.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles again Friday
Nelson (2-3) allowed eight runs on 11 hits and a walk while striking out four over four-plus innings to take the loss versus the Tigers on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard in no-decision
Nelson came away with a no-decision in Saturday's 5-4 extra-innings loss to the Orioles, giving up three runs on 10 hits over 4.2 innings. He struck out three without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Garners win in return
Nelson (2-2) picked up the win over the Padres on Sunday, allowing four runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out three over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Activated for Sunday's start
The Diamondbacks activated Nelson (elbow) from the 15-day injured list ahead of his start against the Padres on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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