Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

This is my annual reminder that prospecting is an inexact science.  We can use all the statistical analysis in the world, watch hours of film and in a different world could even meet with players and watch them in person.  Yet there's no way to ensure a prospect will be a success, or to what level a prospect will succeed.  That's why Mike Trout was the 25th pick in the 2009 draft (he was the sixth outfielder taken).  Why Derek Jeter was drafted sixth (none of the five players taken before him were Hall of Famers, to say the least, though Phil Nevin was certainly a very good player).

Other players everyone simply missed.  Albert Pujols (pick 402).  Mike Piazza (pick 1,390).  One of the members of the current top-100 prospects is Tarik Skubal, who was a ninth-round pick in 2018.

Yet, inclusion in the top 100 also doesn't necessarily mean these players will be big-league successes either.  There's talent, then there's talent and development, and then there is luck and opportunity.  There's some combination of many factors that usually results in stardom, in complete flameouts, and everything in between.

OK, I hear you.  Thanks for telling us what we already knew, Jesse.  Still, it's worth noting that pitchers are considered riskier than positional prospects.  Why Brien Taylor was more likely to be a bust than Mickey Moniak.  There's also injuries and organizational priorities and handling to take into account.

If your head isn't spinning by now, it should be.  Even the experts will be wrong sometimes.  Even the casual baseball fan will be right occasionally.  That's the beauty of the game.  Unless you're the front office executive who passed over Mike Trout or Derek Jeter.

Let's take our best shot at predicting the future success of some more minor leaguers in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, BOS – From a prospect perspective, Downs got the best of both worlds over the last year.  He thrust himself into the category of being considered elite with a mammoth 2019 campaign.  Downs clubbed 24 home runs, drove in 86 runs and also swiped 24 bags in 119 games between High-A and Double-A as a member of the Dodgers organization.  However, with Gavin Lux and a bevy of other middle-infield options in his way, Downs appeared destined to bide his time in the minors for the foreseeable future.  His circumstances changed drastically again, though, when Downs was shipped to the Red Sox as one of the centerpieces in the Mookie Betts deal.  While Xander Bogaerts is entrenched at shortstop, the situation for Boston is still muddled at second base.  It remains to be seen if Dustin Pedroia will ever return from injury.  Meanwhile, Michael Chavis played 19 games at second a season ago, but that is also not his natural position.  The BoSox also signed Jose Peraza, who was once a hot-shot prospect but has seen much of his luster fade  the last couple seasons.  As a result, if Downs gets off to a scorching start to the season, the Red Sox could choose to quickly promote the 21-year-old.

Jordan Balazovic, P, MIN – The 21-year-old righty had a standout 2019 campaign, compiling a 2.69 ERA and 129:25 K:BB in 93.2 innings between Low-A and High-A.  There's a lot to like about Balazovic; he has a solid frame at 6-foot-5, 215, allowed just four home runs last year, and the opposition hit a paltry .193 against him.  Double-A will be a big test for Balazovic, who has a mid-90s heater with movement, stellar curveball and emerging changeup.  If he can continue to miss bats and show above-average control, he could have all the makings of an ace for the Twinkies.  Let's also not forget that Minnesota had Jose Berrios make his MLB debut as a 22-year-old in 2016, so Balazovic may not be as far away from the bigs as it may seem.

Mauricio Dubon, 2B/OF, SF – Dubon is an interesting prospect, a 25-year-old middle infielder who never really got much of a chance with the Brewers.  He should receive all the at-bats he can handle with the Giants, though, and could play center field as well, and perhaps even a little third base.  He hit four home runs and swiped three bases in 28 games at the big-league level with the Giants at the end of last year.  If he reaches his absolute peak, Dubon could be a 20-20 player, though 15-15 is more likely.  Dubon hasn't hit below .272 at any level since 2014, and as such is a solid bet to hit for average.  If he bats at the top of the lineup, which is currently projected, he could also score plenty of runs.  He swiped 38 bases in 2017, so there could be some hidden steals too.  Opportunity knocks for Dubon, and he is particularly intriguing as a middle infielder.

Grayson Rodriguez, P, BAL – The Orioles as an organization do not have the greatest track record when it comes to developing pitching talent through the farm system.  Who's the last great Orioles hurler to come through the minors ... Mike Mussina?  Daniel Cabrera was supposed to be the savior of the franchise.  Dylan Bundy the next great hurler.  We all know how those promises turned out.  Rodriguez is hoping to buck that recent trend after a breakout 2019 campaign.  He dazzled at Low-A despite being the third-youngest pitcher in the league.  He posted a 2.68 ERA and 129:36 K:BB in 84 innings.  He has a stellar build for a frontline starter at 6-5, 220, Rodriguez has the chance for four pitches, three of which are plus.  He also allowed just four home runs in 20 starts.  Rodriguez turned 20 in the offseason, and the Orioles do not need to rush him at all.  That said, as long as he stays healthy, Rodriguez could see the big leagues as soon as 2021 if baseball returns shortly.

CHECK STATUS

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, CHW – The White Sox have a ton of young talent moving quickly through the system, and Vaughn is yet another polished bat who could make his MLB debut this season.  The only thing holding Vaughn back appears to be opportunity.  Jose Abreu still mans first base, while the White Sox also signed Edwin Encarnacion, who essentially is a statue at this point in his career.  As such, it looks like Vaughn would need an injury or trade to become truly fantasy relevant in 2020.  Of course, if he begins the season by tearing the cover off the ball, the White Sox could be forced to find a spot for him.  Vaughn batted .304/.448/.522 with three extra-base hits and five RBIs in 23 spring at-bats.  However, it is more likely he starts the season at Double-A with an eye toward a late-season call-up, with 2021 being his greater impact year.

Sixto Sanchez, P, MIA – Pundits appear divided on whether Sanchez can be a true ace.  He pitched more than 100 innings last season for the first time in his minor league career and was named the organization's pitcher of the year for 2019 with a 2.76 ERA and 103:21 K:BB in 114 innings, mostly at Double-A.  His control has been impeccable, though he has fanned less than a batter per inning during his brief professional career.  Still, his combined ERA since entering the minors in 2015 is 2.58, and Sanchez just turned 21 during the 2019 campaign.  He can reach triple digits on the radar gun, possesses an elite changeup and developing slider.  Health has also been a concern for Sanchez, though last season was certainly a step in the right direction.  Still, combine that with his smaller stature, at least in terms of other frontline pitchers, and that will always lead to questions as to whether he can sustain the rigors of the starting rotation for a complete MLB season.  Sanchez should begin the season at Triple-A with an eye toward premiering in the big leagues later in the year.

Kyle Wright, P, ATL – Wright seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle over the last year.  Sure, his numbers weren't pretty in seven outings with the big club last year, most of which came at the beginning of the season.  However, when he returned to Triple-A, he surged.  He finished with a 2.60 ERA and 92:23 K:BB in 79.2 innings over his final 13 starts at that level.  It will be a fight for Wright to make the big-league rotation to begin the year due to competition as well as limited spots, but he shouldn't spend too much time in the minors.  Once a slightly more highly touted prospect, Wright could be an interesting value and/or sleeper pick.

Brady Singer, P, KC – The Royals have higher upside hurlers on the farm with Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar, but Singer appears to be the most big-league ready at this time.  Prior to the hiatus, he was a candidate for the fifth spot in the starting rotation.  The 23-year-old posted a 2.85 ERA and 138:39 K:BB in 148.1 innings between High-A and Double-A.  The polished collegian from Florida induced a bevy of ground balls, notching a 1.71 GO:AO in 2019.  Singer doesn't have superior strikeout stuff, and may not end up starting the season in the bigs when all is said and done.  However, he is likely to be the first young arm to reach the majors of the recent high-round pitching draftees for the Royals.

DOWNGRADE

Jordyn Adams, OF, LAA – There are a few red flags for Adams, a first-round pick in the 2018 draft.  He remains quite raw, as he was a dual-sport star in high school and had a football scholarship as a four-star wide receiver to attend North Carolina before being lured away by the Halos.  Obviously, he has athletic talent, but that has not translated thus far onto the diamond.  Adams had just 12 steals in 106 games last year between Low-A and High-A.  He also did not hit above .250 at either stop, recording eight home runs in those 106 contests.  While Adams is a ways away from making a big-league impact, there is also the issue of where he will eventually play.  Mike Trout appears to be an Angel for life, Jo Adell is more highly thought of than Adams and is on the verge of taking over as an everyday outfielder and Brandon Marsh might be ready no later than 2021.  As a result, while Adams remains a project, it is a wonder where he will end up on the Angels, or if he stays with the organization at all.

Andres Gimenez, SS, NYM – Despite a stellar showing in a repeat performance in the Arizona Fall League, Gimenez's stock has taken a nosedive overall in recent years.  He posted a career-low slash line at Double-A in 2019, hitting just .250/.309/.387.  He doesn't walk much, has seen his strikeout rate rise the last two seasons and hasn't quite figured out how to truly capitalize on the base paths.  Sure, he swiped 28 bags in 117 games in 2019, but he was also caught 16 times.  Add in a lack of game power (Gimenez had a career-high nine home runs in 2019) and Gimenez might not end up being the future at shortstop.  Ronny Mauricio certainly appears to be the better bet for the Mets at this time despite being farther away from the big leagues.

Jorge Mateo, SS/2B, OAK – Mateo had a huge bounce back season at Triple-A in 2019, slashing .289/.330/.504 with 19 home runs, 78 RBI and 24 steals in 119 games.  However, his power numbers certainly must be taken with a grain of salt.  Prior to 2019, he never hit more than 12 home runs in a season, and he played in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League.  His peripheral stats look a bit more worrisome as well.  Mateo walked just 29 times while striking out 145 times in those 119 outings.  As such, it appears unlikely he will hit for average at the big-league level.  It is also worth noting that Mateo has not stolen more than 25 bases in either of the last two seasons.  By contrast, he swiped 52 bags in 2017, and an outrageous 82 bases in 2015.  The 24-year-old still has plenty of speed, but if he can't hit for average, draw walks and get on base, he could end up being Billy Hamilton with a bit more power.  Add in that Marcus Semien is coming off a monstrous season at shortstop, and Franklin Barreto and Tony Kemp look poised to share second base duties to begin the 2020 campaign, and Mateo could be looking at a return to Triple-A for the third consecutive year.

Daz Cameron, OF, DET – The Tigers are in the midst of rebuilding a previously desolate farm system and have already stocked the pitching side full of high upside arms.  The hitting side, though, leaves something to be desired.  Riley Greene is the consensus top bat in the minors, but Cameron slots in next on most lists.  Still, his 2019 campaign was a disappointment at Triple-A.  He hit just .213 while fanning 152 times in 120 games.  There were some positives, though.  He drew 62 walks, which was top 10 in the International League.  He also still collected 13 home runs and swiped 17 bags despite the low batting average.  If everything comes together for him, Cameron could be a 20-20 guy, though it appears he has more speed than power.  Unfortunately, strikeouts have always been an issue for Cameron, and with only mediocre power, the low batting average is going to be particularly troublesome.  The 23-year-old still has time to prove the doubters wrong, and will have a new coach at Triple-A to work with, but it's safe to say he has lost some prospect luster  the last year or so.