The Z Files: Early Draft Pick Follies

You know what they say, "You can't win a draft in the first round, but you can lose it." Who are they? How long have they been playing fantasy baseball?

OK, I get it. I just think, "but you can lose it" is an unnecessary tag. No one is choosing Ehire Adrianza with their first pick. As Norm Peterson would have said, "You can't win a draft in the first round, pass the beer nuts." As an aside, I won a couple of Halloween costume contests wearing a suitcoat and loose tie while carrying around a mug of beer. Back then, my hair was curly like Norm's and the mug was more than a prop, but I digress.

Some suggest sticking to "best player available" with the first few picks. Sure, makes sense, but are there really clear-cut best picks?

My preferred approach is using the initial selections to set up the squad for more profitable picks in the mid to late rounds. The early roster build helps pave the way to add targeted players down the line, in a manner that makes their contributions the most advantageous.

It's not a secret my foundation is rooted in projections and the ensuing expected earnings. That said, the resultant ordering is a guideline as opposed to a roadmap. I won't bore you with my usual "projections and valuation methods are flawed" diatribe. Instead, I'll present my early top-30 and discuss ramifications of roster construction.

Keeping in mind everyone's expectations are different and the above is one man's opinion, the top is in sync with the early market. I'm not referring to the absolute order, but rather the closeness of the rankings. In terms of projected earnings, the typical pattern is someone threatens $50, the next checks in around $47, then $45, and so on.

To be honest, it's laughable earnings are presented with two decimal places, but it was done to accentuate how little the difference there is between players. Give someone 10 more plate appearances or another steal, and they leapfrog the adjacent player. This is reflective of public perception, as there isn't a consensus top overall player this season, with multiple candidates to be the first off the board.

With the concession many will have Shane Bieber higher, it's best to group the early players by traits and not home in on the static projection and ranking. The classifications could be as follows:

HR/SB combination: Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis

High SB, decent power: Trea Turner

High HR, some SB: Mike Trout, Juan Soto

Ace: Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber

The first step in roster construction is to decide what general type of player you desire. The primary factors should be what sorts of player will be more readily available later. Arguments can be tendered for and against each group, with the logic unique to the individual.

Here's an example how someone may approach the first pick. Let's call them Zodd Tola.

Zodd is confident he can assemble a competitive pitching staff without expending the first pick on an arm, so he eliminates the aces. Similarly, he crosses off Turner, since he has read research explaining league winners focus more on power and run production while piecing together steals later in the draft and via in-season acquisitions. Zodd uses the same logic to land on Trout or Soto, passing on Acuna, Betts and Tatis.

Zodd now considers the attributes of Trout and Soto. Trout obviously checks the experience column and is still several years away from age being a concern. Steals are a secondary consideration, but Soto has the edge; he's younger and the Nationals run liberally. Health could be the deciding factor. Soto played 154 games at three levels in 2018 then 150 games with Washington in 2019. He began the 2020 campaign on the COVID-19 IL, but that can't be held against him. Trout averaged 129 games from 2017-2019 but he averaged 158 games per year the previous four seasons. This year, he missed a handful of games on paternity leave but was otherwise healthy. That said, he's often made it through two months unscathed, only to succumb to an injury later in the season. Ultimately, Zodd opts for Trout, unable to overlook the track record while trusting he'll stay on the field enough to merit top overall status. Zodd doesn't care that the rankings he's using list Trout sixth.

Someone else may be in lockstep with Zodd, but prefer Soto's youth and trusts his abbreviated, but solid, health track record.

Another drafter could be less assured of their pitching acumen and want an ace. Here, the conundrum is between deGrom and his history of a low win total, Cole and his proclivity for the long ball, and Bieber's shorter track record. The absolute rankings are moot; it's a matter of risk aversion and balancing floor and ceiling.

Perhaps a different fantasy enthusiast sees power throughout the inventory and doesn't feel like chasing steals. Their only choice is Turner.

Anecdotally, "starting off with power and speed" is the most popular approach. This helps explain why Betts, Acuna and Tatis (in that order) are atop the ADP from Justin Mason's #2EarlyMocks 2020, derived from nine early mock drafts already in the books. That said, Acuna and Tatis each were picked first only once, while Betts was the initial selection six times. Several factors are inherent to the decision. Tatis plays shortstop, and some still pay heed to that despite the position being ridiculously stocked in quality and quantity. The youth of Acuna and Tatis offer them a theoretical higher ceiling than Betts, but it appears Betts' track record won out among those wishing for a HR/SB foundation.

Each ensuing pick factors in how well the current roster helps achieve the final objective. Since the focus today is on early picks, here's how our friend Zodd may approach his second rounder.

The same four general classification exist, with different names. That said, they're a little looser within each subset. The listed players incorporate the #2EarlyMocks 2020 ADP as well as Zodd's rankings. That is, they're all plausible options to be available at the end of the second round.

HR/SB combination: Kyle Tucker, Ozzie Albies, Alex Bregman

High SB, decent power: Adalberto Mondesi, Luis Robert, Whit Merrifield

High HR: Jose Abreu, Marcell Ozuna, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon

Ace: Luis Castillo, Walker Buehler, Aaron Nola, Clayton Kershaw, Jack Flaherty

Please don't quibble with the classifications; the process is the thing.

Zodd has two picks. With Trout in tow, he prefers to eschew the High HR groups, not wanting to fall too far behind in both steals and pitching. While he remains confident with respect to his ability to assimilate a quality staff, waiting until the 4th/5th for his first starter is tenuous, so one pick will be an ace.

Again, the candidates are compared via their profiles. Buehler and Flaherty are the young hotshots with the higher ceilings, but both were babied a bit in 2020 so workload is a potential issue. Kershaw is the veteran with a balky back. Castillo and Nola are different types of pitchers, but both have displayed stretches of elite work while also struggling. Zodd chooses Nola, admittedly influenced by having him ranked seven spots higher and earning $5 more than Castillo. However, if Nola wasn't available, he'd take Castillo despite the Reds hurler ranking below Buehler, Kershaw and Flaherty.

The other pick is either a HR/SB guy or more of a SB specialist. Rankings could play into the choice if there some someone significantly ahead of the field. The opposite is true as well. Perhaps there's a player likely available at the next pick. There is less of a chance of this occurring close to a wheel slot, but it could be a factor in the middle of a round. For example, Zodd's rankings have Tucker 27th, meanwhile the ADP says 39th. If this were a few picks earlier, Zodd could play chicken with the market, hoping to land Tucker in the third. However, in this scenario, he's picking at the end and there is no chance he makes it back.

There's one more element influencing the decision. Zodd' rankings have Ozuna 17th overall whereas his ADP is 36, so he's probably available at the 2nd/3rd turn but will be long gone the next time Zodd is on the clock. However, drafting Ozuna means the roster will be deficient in either speed or pitching, whereas biting the bullet and passing on Ozuna leads to a more balanced start.

There is no right answer, only a better approach. How does grabbing Ozuna and either steals or a pitcher next affect the rest of the draft? If the answer is, "I can still easily find pitching/steals," then draft Ozuna and bank the hopeful profit. If there is still a concern about roster balance, reluctantly, let him go.

The bottom line is rankings are a necessary starting point, but it's what you do with them that ultimately determines your fantasy fate. My preference is for formulaic rankings, but even if you're more of a touch and feel person, the same process is required to finalize decisions.