This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Strikeout Prop Strategy
My favorite baseball bet is the strikeout prop. These lines are not as sharp as traditional money lines or over/unders. If you dig and understand what is not built into the lines (see below), you can exploit them for profit. If you don't believe me, take a look at my past articles and my record which is 19-6 for the season.
Build your Board in Excel
I take every pitcher, K prop, money line, total, opponent, average strikeouts per game, and projected strikeouts and put them in Excel so I can analyze the whole board against each other. This helps me find value on the handful of props I will end up betting for the day. I seem to always fall in the middle of the board and avoid the ones and the top or bottom.
Shop Around for Lines
BetMGM usually posts the strikeout props first, and others follow suit. Often times you will see a pitcher with a strikeout prop of 5.5 at one sportsbook, but 6.5 at another sportsbook but at different odds. The 5.5 prop might be over -160, under +110 and the 6.5 prop would be over -110, under +150.
I do not like to lay more than -150 on any baseball bet, especially strikeout props.
Using Money Line/Totals
I like to use the money line plus the total for the game to identify market value in a strikeout prop. The higher the favorite and lower the total present a favorable situation for the starting pitcher strikeout prop. For example, a pitcher favored -200 with a total of 7 vs. a pitcher -120 and a total of 9. The strikeout props might only have a difference of 1 but the data says the stronger favorite and lower total represents value.
Lineup Analysis
The American League has nine hitters and the National League is eight hitters with a pitcher or pinch-hitter. But also, how many of those eight or nine hitters are at an advantage or disadvantage against the starting pitcher?
Understanding Splits
RHP – 71% of at-bats
LHP – 29% of at-bats
RHB vs. RHP – 39% of at-bats; K rate 25%
LHB vs RHP – 32% of at-bats; K rate 23%
RHB vs. LHP – 20% of at-bats; K rate 23%
LHB vs. LHP – 8% of at-bats; K rate 26%
You can see where you get RHB vs. RHP or LHB vs. LHP the strikeout rates are higher.
Focus on Games in National League Pitcher's Parks
My first go-to when looking at strikeout props is going to the games in National League Parks because of the pitcher/pinch-hitter in the 9th spot. The likelihood of a couple more strikeouts is significant especially when you are looking at numbers between 5-9.
Sunday/Saturday Day Games/Day Games
Teams often rest veteran players on Sundays and this makes lineups weaker overall, especially in the National League where you have pitchers/pinch hitters in the 9th spot.
Impact of Injuries / Line Moves
Last Sunday, the Blue Jays / Phillies game line moved significantly as Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto were out. Robbie Ray's strikeout prop was reflecting the money line move towards the Jays and the total dropping from 10.5 to 10.
Team Strikeout % vs. RHP and LHP
Some teams are very right-handed heavy or left-handed heavy so this impacts the construction of their lineups. Do not just look at the team season totals, look at last 30/14/7 as things could be trending significantly one way or the other.
