This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 0-2, -2.05
Overall 164-143-2, +1.12
I have been on the Astros to win the World Series for much of the year and will continue. I love them at home in this series and will wager accordingly. The Braves have a huge edge at home as the Astros will lose Yordan Alvarez. Overall, the Astros have the better lineup and bullpen, while the Braves have the better starting rotation. I like the Astros getting home-field advantage and winning a close series in 7.
Atlanta Braves 
at Houston Astros 
Charlie Morton vs. Framber Valdez
The Astros are 21-9 in the last 30 games at home as favorites between -100 and -150. They are 18-12 to the over in those 30 games. Houston ranked 6th in runs scored at home in the 1st 5 innings and the Braves were 9th on the road. The Astros rank 2nd at home since Aug.1 with 129 wRC+. The Braves rank 8th on the road since Aug.1 with 108 wRC+.
The Braves are 14-16 straight up on the road in their last 30 games as dogs between +100 and +150. Morton has been a road dog 4 times this year and the Braves are 0-4 with 3 going under. Valdez is 9-4 as a home favorite and 9-4 to the over. The average score in his 13 home starts has been 10.4 runs (5.7-4.7).
We have two very potent offenses but the Astros have a decided edge at home.
BET – Astros ML (-128) for 1 RW buck
BET – Over 8.5 (-115) for 1 RW buck
