This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Monday's 11-game slate kicks off at 7:00 p.m. EDT and there are many injuries to sift through, especially at point guard where the pool is littered with red. That position ends up playing itself up top, but other positions won't be so easy to figure out. Let's begin with the sportsbook numbers.
SLATE OVERVIEW
SAS @ WAS (+2 ) O/U: 229.5
ATL @ DET (+5.5) O/U: 220.5
LAL @ ORL (+10) O/U: 211.5
OKC @ PHI (-11) O/U: 219.5
CLE @ TOR (-9.5) O/U: 218
PHO @ NYK (+2) O/U: 215.5
CHI @ MIA (4.5) O/U: 206.5
LAC @ NOR (-3.5) O/U: 229
UTA @ MIN (+10) O/U: 229.5
MEM @ DEN (-4.5) O/U: 228.5
DAL @ SAC (+5.5) O/U: 227.5
Games To Target in BOLD
Games to Fade in ITALIC
(odds and lines are best available US numbers and are subject to change)
INJURIES
WAS Rui Hachimura (knee) -OUT
Daniel Gafford ($5,100) is definitely someone worth considering as a contrarian center. With Hachimura out, there's plenty of frontcourt production to absorb, and unlike other sites, Gafford is listed at power forward on FanDuel. The hole left by Hachimura has also resulted in a slide to small forward for Bradley Beal, giving Raul Neto ($4,500) a string of starts. Amidst the bevy of red O's at point guard, Neto could be an excellent value grab.
ATL Trae Young (ankle) - OUT
ATL De'Andre Hunter (knee) - OUT
There is a small chance that Young will only miss two games with this knee injury, but if he can't make it, the Hawks will likely continue to employ Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,500) at point guard. Although options open up for him and Kevin Huerter ($5,900), their respective salaries will be too steep to get to if Young suits up.
LAL Anthony Davis (calf) - PROBABLE
LAL Dennis Schroder (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
LAL Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) - PROBABLE
There will be people out there who take the risk on Davis, hoping for 30 minutes against Orlando. At his current salary, I will not be one of them. Schroder moved from a foot infection to a calf injury and is now truly questionable. While it's possible that Ben McLemore ($3,800) could show up again, he excelled due to KCP's absence. A return for Caldwell-Pope could mess that situation up a bit, in which case Alex Caruso ($3,700) may be a wiser play as a Schroder pivot.
ORL Terrence Ross (back) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL Michael Carter-Williams (ankle) - OUT
ORL Otto Porter (foot) - OUT
ORL James Ennis (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
Orlando has been a tough call pivot-wise. Gary Harris ($3,800) and Dwayne Bacon ($3,900) continue to be your low-cost budget calls here.
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (foot) - OUT
OKC Luguentz Dort (hip) - OUT
The Thunder have employed a series of looks to account for Dort's absence, but Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,400) is priced adequately as a player who should benefit from his absence. You can't rule out Kenrich Williams ($5,200) either.
PHI Joel Embiid (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
PHI Ben Simmons (illness) - OUT
PHI Tobias Harris (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
PHI Furkan Korkmaz (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
With Simmons definitely out, guards like Shake Milton ($4,700) and Seth Curry ($4,000) jump to mind immediately. Obviously, Dwight Howard ($5,100) earns a start if Embiid can't play, but with Korkmaz questionable, it's wise to avoid going lower to account for Harris.
CLE Collin Sexton (concussion) - OUT
CLE Kevin Love - POSSIBLE REST
Keep an eye out for Love, who still sits out on the occasional back-to-back. Dean Wade ($3,500) would jump in value in that scenario. Darius Garland ($7,600) and Cedi Osman ($3,500) set up well as pivots for Sexton.
TOR Chris Boucher (knee) - OUT
While you could make a case for Khem Birch ($5,000), it may be wiser to go with a higher-priced starter that we'll discuss in a moment.
PHO Jae Crowder (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Torrey Craig ($3,500) came out of nowhere with a double-double in Phoenix's last game, so if Crowder sits, the Suns have found an apt pivot for him at the wing. Luckily, FanDuel has yet to raise his salary.
CHI Zach LaVine (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
Rolling with Coby White ($6,300) still appears to be the smartest play in LaVine's absence, although White's price is getting up there.
MIA Kendrick Nunn (elbow) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Tyler Herro (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Andre Iguodala (hip) - OUT
Goran Dragic ($5,300) will be coming off of a tag for rest, so he's a nice play if Nunn remains out. It's not advisable to go much lower than that.
LAC Kawhi Leonard (foot) - OUT
LAC Luke Kennard (rest ) - OUT
Leonard's absence obviously has huge implications for the Clippers, and we'll discuss them a bit later. It is safe to consider Terance Mann ($5,100) as a starter, however.
NOR Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
NOR Josh Hart (thumb) - OUT
NOR Steven Adams (toe) - QUESTIONABLE
Pivoting to the remaining starters remains a wise play for the first two absences. The backup at center is too risky for this massive slate.
UTA Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - OUT
We're quickly learning that with so much available talent, it's tough to pinpoint who will have a breakout game on any night to absorb Mitchell's production. We won't give them individual endorsements in the Expected Chalk or Value Plays sections, but you have to give Mike Conley ($7,100), Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,400), Jordan Clarkson ($6,000) and Joe Ingles ($6,400) consideration, in that order.
DEN Will Barton (hamstring) - OUT
DEN Monte Morris (hamstring) - OUT
PJ Dozier ($4,600) will continue to see more work in Barton's absence, while Facundo Campazzo ($4,300) will continue to fill in at point guard.
DAL Luka Doncic (elbow) - QUESTIONABLE
DAL Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
With the latest tip-off on the slate, it's going to be difficult to make a call here. The only real option is to take a risk on Doncic and pivot to Sacramento value if he doesn't play, but that leaves way too much money on the table. Roster Doncic and Porzingis with the knowledge that you might be stuck at game lock.
SAC De'Aaron Fox (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
Many will flock to Tyrese Haliburton ($6,100) in this spot, and for good reason. I would not count out a boost for Delon Wright ($5,900) and Buddy Hield ($6,600), however.
ELITE PLAYERS
We have six players at 10k or higher, and some of them are tough to roster. We've already discussed the quandary associated with Luka Doncic ($11,500), and Joel Embiid ($10,700) may not play at all. If Embiid does suit up, he is definitely worthy of consideration without Ben Simmons against the Thunder. With several Denver players playing superior ball, Nikola Jokic ($11,400) has his value somewhat compromised, but he's impossible to fade entirely. Of the group, it seems that Paul George ($10,000) might be the smart play at this level due to Kawhi's absence, although if Russell Westbrook ($11,200) decides to play on this back-to-back, he will come in a close second. Julius Randle ($10,100) is always a concern, and he plays a tough Phoenix squad. My exposure to the big man will be minimal.
Moving down, we see a number of viable targets, with Zion Williamson ($9,700) once again leading the way as a nightly consideration. I already see a combo of George and Williamson in several of my lineup crunches. Clint Capela ($9,600) is also heavily in play, as he'll take on the role of offensive engine with Trae Young most likely on the bench. My exposure will be low to Jimmy Butler ($9,300), but Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) and Pascal Siakam ($9,000) will garner thumbs up in my optimizer. Towns helped to lead his team to another win against the Jazz last time out, and Siakam should thrive in Chris Boucher's absence. An endorsement for Bradley Beal ($9,400) is largely contingent on Westbrook's playing status.
EXPECTED CHALK
DeMar DeRozan, SA ($8,100) @ WAS
This is a great pace-up spot for the Spurs, and DeRozan has seen no shortage of prolific stat lines lately. He's coming off a superior 51 FP performance after returning from a quad injury, and there could be another explosive night in store with the uptick in possessions.
Michael Porter, DEN ($7,400) vs. MEM
Porter's memorable string of career-best performances could halt at any time, but I wouldn't bet against him. The matchup against the Grizzlies gives him explosive potential once again, and he's the offensive magnet for the Nuggets right now. At this price, it is difficult to move away from a guy who can get you 30 points and a spiffy contribution in secondary categories. He could even regress somewhat and still reach value at this price point.
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,300) vs. CLE
The Raptors need to make a move now if they have any hope of being in the mix in mid-May, and VanVleet is key to getting them there. He's coming off a 27/11 double/double against the Knicks and is set up well against the Cavs, who won't have Collin Sexton to defend him. As long as his assist numbers don't leave him high and dry, VanVleet should be in store for a value-beating number.
Harrison Barnes, SAC ($7,000) vs. DAL
Barnes is another player who will need to step up in Fox's absence, and after a standout string of four games, there's every reason to believe that he'll take advantage of the increased opportunities. While Tyrese Haliburton has been effective, the Mavs will no doubt key on him if he plays a lot at point guard, and the youngster may be forced to dish the ball to other playmakers. Barnes will assuredly be one of those targets.
Also consider: Dejounte Murray, SAS ($6,800) @ WAS
VALUE PLAYS
You'll find plenty of value options in the Injuries section, but there many other low-cost budget plays on this massive slate. We will list a few endorsements, accompanied by a small list.
OG Anunoby, TOR ($6,500) vs. CLE
While Anunoby's defensive prowess is well documented, his scoring ability is vastly underrated, as his six three-pointers against the Knicks indicated. He's burst back onto the scene with fantasy totals of 32 and 42 FP since returning from a calf injury, and he should enjoy a nice game against the Cavs, especially if Kevin Love takes a seat on the back-to-back.
Isaiah Roby, OKC ($4,100) @ PHI
Roby will get an uptick if Joel Embiid is absent, and he may still be a smart option at this salary point. Roby sees close to 30 minutes currently, and with a PF designation, we don't have to use the center spot to get him into our lineups. Even if Embiid plays, he could be slowed by his injury somewhat. Roby could reap serious value in this spot.
Terence Davis, SAC ($4,100) vs. DAL
Davis is my punt play of the night. No one really knows how things will shake out with the Kings while Fox is out, but Davis definitely comes into play if they shift Haliburton to point guard. A move like Delon Wright to the point won't help Davis at all, but if the Kings remember how effective Davis was as a placeholder for Kyle Lowry in Toronto, they might be inclined to give him more production in this scenario. While he's only a tournament play at this point, he could be a slate-breaker.
Other value options to consider:
SF Keldon Johnson, SAS ($4,400) @ WAS
PF Jaren Jackson, MEM ($6,600)@ DEN
PG Cory Joseph, DET ($5,000) vs. ATL
PG Lonzo Ball, NOR ($6,100) vs. LAC
