DraftKings NFL: Week 4 Picks

DraftKings NFL: Week 4 Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

QUARTERBACK

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. CIN ($6,100): You will see I am recommending both quarterbacks from the same game this week. If you want to stack the Falcons, go with Ryan. If you want to stack the Bengals, it is Dalton. But Ryan is $700 more so in your cash games it might just come down to who you can fit in. Injuries on the defensive side have forced the Falcons to play a more aggressive approach on offense to keep up with opponents. With Calvin Ridley emerging as a viable weapon opposite Julio Jones, Ryan is no longer the boring 240-yard, 1-TD quarterback. He even got two rushing touchdowns in week 2 against the Panthers. Ryan's completion rate the last two games was 74 and 82 percent. Another home game in the dome on turf should result in high scoring on both sides.

Andy Dalton, CIN at ATL ($5,400):
The approach for quarterbacks on DraftKings is trying to find the cheapest one with the highest projected team total. The Falcons have numerous injuries on defense and lost Ricardo Allen last week. The Bengals are coming off a high-scoring game against the Panthers, and the Saints/Falcons was all sorts of fantasy goodness last week. This game should be in the mid-50s with a possibility of the 60s; 300 passing yards and three touchdowns is in play for Dalton.

RUNNING BACK

Jordan Howard, CHI vs. TB ($6,800): I am not in love with a lot of the running back options this week. Todd Gurley played Thursday and James Conner, Kareem Hunt and Alex Collins are missing from the Sunday main slate. Not to mention all the injuries and subpar starts by Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson. This leaves an option in which I think has a very nice game script. The Bears defense is top 5 in the NFL, and Chicago is a home favorites against the Bucs, who played a very tough game at home Monday Night against the Steelers. I can see the Bucs coming into this game out of gas and the Bears controlling the game on defense. While Howard has not put up a huge game this season, I think this is the week we see 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns from him. His ownership is projected to be low and makes for a better tournament option.

Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. ATL ($6,300):
Fire up another pass-catching running back against the Falcons; this week is Gio Bernard's number. While there is concern about his workload and him showing up on the injury report, this game has all the makings of a shootout. Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey put up huge receiving numbers against the Falcons in previous weeks and with Joe Mixon out, Bernard will get a huge workload this week.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. SF ($4,200):
Ekeler has been the second-best value running back on DraftKings this year based on price/production. He has become the West Coast James White, and I love playing him every week. He posted 23.6 against the Chiefs, but had two subpar games in a row. But the matchup this week against a weak 49ers defense lends itself to another huge game in the 20-point range. We do not have a huge inventory of cheap starting running backs this week, so I am leaning on Ekeler in my FLEX spot.

WIDE RECEIVER

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. NO ($4,900): Shepard quietly posted 20 points last week against the Texans, and with Evan Engram out he should see a bump in targets against a weak Saints secondary that lost Patrick Robinson. Shepard was a consistent receiver as a rookie in 2016, but battled injuries in 2017. He is still a guy who can get to 20-25 points in a given week and that is his ceiling this week.

Mike Williams, LAC vs. SF ($4,500):
I was already on Williams this week because of the cheap price tag and huge matchup. But with word that Keenan Allen is going for a MRI on his knee, this potentially vaults Williams into the WR1 for the Chargers. Take note of his price, because this might be the last time you EVER see it this low. Williams posted 24.10 points against the Rams in Week 3 and clearly Rivers is trusting him in big spots now. His ownership is still projected at less than 10 percent, but that could change quickly to 20-30 percent and he becomes the chalk play of the week.

Chris Godwin, TB at CHI ($4,500):
Godwin has scored a touchdown every week along with an increase in targets of 4/6/10. While the matchup against the Bears is a tougher one, the Packers moved the ball in the air against their secondary. I really like the Bucs this week as a contrarian stack in tournaments based on their low projected ownerships and price.

TIGHT END

Rob Gronkowski, NE vs. MIA ($7,000): I am meticulous with my selection of Gronk in DFS. I always play him when another WR is out for the Pats or the matchup is optimal (home favorite, high total, opposing defense weak against the tight end). This is a prime spot for using Gronkowski, because Travis Kelce is not on the Sunday Main slate and Zach Ertz has a sub-optimal matchup. Gronk has torn up the Dolphins, and they have been notoriously weak at defending the position. With Josh Gordon's status still in the air and Rex Burkhead out for the season, Tom Brady will have to rely on Gronk even more this week. Add in the fact they have lost two straight and now have a key home division game that is must win.

Jared Cook, OAK vs. CLE ($4,100):
Cook is the second-leading tight end with 15.6 points per game, but his $4,100 price is puzzling, especially considering the matchup against the Browns, who have been torched by tight ends for several seasons. Cook had the one huge game in Week 1 against the Broncos and has been quiet the last two. But I love the matchup and we save close to $3,000 off Gronk.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Indianapolis Colts vs. HOU ($2,200): The Colts come into the matchup against the Texans priced 25th overall, but 11th in scoring. The price is perfect for cash games because it allows you to spend up at one RB and one WR spot. Surprisingly, their projected ownership is outside the top 5 as of Friday morning, but I do expect that to change. The Texans offensive line is graded as the worst in the NFL and the Colts at home and a slight favorite are in a good spot to at least just bank 6-8 points as a floor. In this landscape of offensive passing explosion, it has paid off to drop down on DST.

Chicago Bears vs. TB ($2,600):
The top scoring DST through three games at 14.7, but priced at 10th overall against the Bucs. I recommend playing a hedge this week on this game. Put in one lineup with a Bucs stack on offense, but then turn around and do another lineup of Jordan Howard with the Bears defense. I do not know how the game will play out, but the Bears DST is just too cheap not to play it.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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