Connor Brown

On the surface, Brown had an excellent season for Ottawa. He posted a career-high 21 goals, including a stretch of eight games in the middle of the year in which he tallied once in each contest. A deeper dive into the numbers tells us Brown's success is almost certainly unsustainable. Those 21 markers came on the strength of a 17.1 percent shooting percentage, a number outrageously higher than his prior seasons. He also managed just a single goal (and four points) with the man advantage. Brown has his uses and should continue to see a boatload of ice time for a Senators team which is nowhere near the end of its rebuild, but fantasy managers expecting him to score at the same clip we saw a season ago are likely to come away disappointed.

Brown had a very good season amidst low expectations with the lottery-bound Senators last year, scoring a career-high 43 points. That performance does, however, come with a big asterisk; Brown's 20:07 of ice time per game ranked 20th among forwards in the NHL but he ranked 110th out of 156 in points per game (0.61) among forwards who scored at least 15 goals. It's much more playing time than what he averaged as a role player with the Leafs, and his career season required high-volume opportunities that will only be available on bad teams. Brown will be a top-six placeholder until the Sens' young talent matures, and with limited offensive upside on a team that is closer to the lottery than the playoffs, he is unlikely to be any more effective in fantasy than he was last season in 2020-21.

Brown has a real shot at a top-six role in Ottawa, something he just couldn't take hold of in Toronto, even as coach Mike Babcock's pet -- he sure was beloved for his tenacity and defensive determination. Those attributes will make the redhead a fan fave in Canada's capital, and he should be able to take off from where he started as a rookie (the 25-year-old sniped 20 goals as a freshman while skating with Auston Matthews). Brown was seen by many as an add-on in the Nikita Zaitsev trade, but opportunity plus talent/defensive skill should let him flourish. He could end up being the best part of the Sens' haul in that deal.

Brown took a step back offensively in 2017-18. He couldn't build on his 20-goal, 36-point rookie campaign and settled with 14 goals and 14 assists over 82 games. Yet Brown is well-respected by his coach, Mike Babcock. His flexibility makes him an easy guy to move up and down the lines. The Leafs are also incredibly deep at forward, which pretty much relegates Brown to the fourth line with capped ice time. He'd play on any other team's third line with ease. Still, he'll outmatch the guys he skates against every shift, which makes him and his mates exciting to watch. But his fantasy value will be limited to the deepest of formats.

Brown's 20-goal rookie campaign in 2016-17 would have leapt off the page had it been not been for guys named Matthews, Marner and Nylander. He also tailed off as the season wore on with just five goals in his last 23 games. Brown, however, had the trust of coach Mike Babcock, something that doesn't come easily, and he continued to slot onto all lines because of his gritty, two-way versatility. Brown finished the season with 36 points despite playing a more defensive role and should line up as the Leafs' third-line right winger in 2017-18. Don't let that scare you, as the Leafs' top three lines saw relatively equal ice time in 2016-17. Brown should see an uptick in output this season, although he will continue to hop the boards in key defensive moments. Mid-40 point totals beckon.

Brown is a classic late-bloomer who has gone from being a sixth-round pick (156th overall) in 2012 to the OHL scoring champion and Player of the Year in 2013-14. At 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds, Brown needs to continue to work on his strength to shine in the pros, but he already oozes top-six skills and loves to compete, so his time should come. He'll be given every opportunity to show off his talents with the AHL Toronto Marlies and could compete for a job with the Leafs in a couple seasons.